IT is not often the police openly tell you they are expecting a rise in crime. After all, they are responsible for reducing crime as well as the fear of crime.

But Harrogate Police has taken the view that by telling people what is likely to happen, residents will have enough time to protect their belongings and ensure they are not just another victim of crime, another faceless statistic.

The local crime trends may be decreasing in general but Harrogate Police's community safety sergeant Geoff Crocker said crime analysts have highlighted the spring and summer crime trends to ensure the fall continues in all areas.

The long-term forecast is for a continued reduction but the police intelligence analysts who briefed senior officers this month warned the Harrogate district would see a rise in crime through May and June.

Sgt Crocker said: "Our analysts don't use a crystal ball – the technology and methods are very well established, and factors like the time of the year, weather, length of daylight hours, prison releases, the economy, latest gadgets and events and festivals all affect criminal activity."

Forecasts of rises in house burglaries and thefts will become the main areas of concern, as assaults and robberies are expected to decrease.

Predictions include an increase in the number of prestige cars and vehicles less than two years old stolen.

Sgt Crocker said during April a Mini Cooper, Golf Gti and Audi RS4 valued at £15,000-£17,700 and £20,000 were stolen from outside the homes of the owners after the keys were stolen in separate Burglaries.

He said BMWs, Mercedes and Audis were also popular with thieves, as well as various Land Rover models.

Sgt Crocker also warned theft of plant equipment such as dumper trucks, JCBs and high-value farm tractors and power tools are expected to be on the increase .

Other predictions include the continued thefts of aluminium, lead and copper from public buildings and a rise in the number of sat navs and mobile phones being taken.

"These gloomy predictions around increases in thefts are about identifying areas of work for us," Sgt Crocker added.

"Every six months we look strategically at where we need to deploy our staff.