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INVESTMENT VIEWPOINT by John Newsome of Williams Investment Management LLP Tel 01423 705123 or john.newsome@williams-im.com



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Published Date: 08 August 2008
What's the matter with you, Darling?
IN 1838, Grace Darling rowed through mountainous seas to reach the survivors of the S.S. Forfarshire and so become a Victorian heroine.

There is, however, no chance of her namesake Alastair rowing through the inclement seas of the present economic downturn to rescue the British economy.

The Chancellor, interviewed recently on Radio 4, implied the Government would do something about rising food and oil prices.

We would be very interested to know what he believes he could possibly do to affect the price of globally traded commodities.

He also said the Prime Minister would talk to the Saudis with a view to getting them to increase the supply of crude oil.

Mr Brown subsequently attended the Jeddah energy conference where he naively commented that, for the first time, major oil producing countries accepted that prices were too high.

Tell that to the Russians (or indeed the Saudis) Mr Brown. If a country can sell all its desired level of production and the price still rises, then no price is too high.

Meanwhile, the inflation numbers continue to deteriorate. Yet Mr Darling feels the UK will escape recession.

He believes the UK economy is now in better shape than many to weather the storm and backs this up by saying “if you look at the consensus of independent economists, they think the economy will continue to grow.”

Good grief, if he’s relying on that then things really are desperate. It reminds us of the plethora of soothing statements issued by the great and good in the US just prior to the Wall Street Crash of 1929; there are plenty to choose from but eminent economist Irving Fisher’s “the nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of prosperity” takes some beating.

The fact that the UK is now facing stagflation is an inevitable consequence of the economic policies that have been followed for the past decade.

Government borrowing has been excessive and while a debt-fuelled economy rained windfall receipts, the Treasury didn’t have the wit to salt some of it away for a rainy day.

Of course, it would be unfair to lay that at Mr Darling’s door; it’s the Prime Minister’s fingerprints peppering that particular crime scene.

At the Mansion House gathering in June, Mr Darling acknowledged the Government’s own forecasts for growth and inflation, issued just three months before on Budget day, were too optimistic.

Those of us possessing a more cynical nature were incredulous with the originals.

Furthermore, while reducing his 2008 growth forecast, the Chancellor reckons 2009 will see the economy returning to above trend growth.

There isn’t a hope; it won’t because it can’t. It’s time to move over Darling.

l Williams Investment Management LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

The full article contains 496 words and appears in Harrogate Advertiser newspaper.
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  • Last Updated: 04 August 2008 12:21 PM
  • Source: Harrogate Advertiser
  • Location: Harrogate
 
 
  

 
 


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